ZAY Blog

Well, not quite, there is still hope that the senate would bring it back to live some times later this week.

However, the collapse of Wachovia, the bank that could be saved if the loan programs have approved earlier, as well as the plunge of the major index around the world, clearly indicated that this is an issue that can not be waited…

How long will the politicians in Parliament Hill figure out that Americans do need to save Wall Street?

I am not saying the traders in Wall Street have done the right thing to use the money that they are not prepared to pay back, however, what is right and what is wrong no longer matters, because Wall Street is not only a financial hub of the world, it is, more importantly, the dominant factor of the US economy. If Wall Street fails, every ordinary American citizens would be affected, not just the traders or the investment bank executives.

Sometimes, I am wondering if democracy is really a great idea in time of crisis, because it is difficult to explain to every single individual (or even the majority) of the impact of certain things, not because general public are ignorant by any means, but rather we are specialize in different things.

For example, it is difficult to convince a farmer whose sole interest is to be able to sell the cattle he has raised that 2000 dollars from his tax money has to be given to the financial market.

He is probably really good with raising cattle, far better than the investment bankers could do, but that does not mean he could be educated enough to see the entire economy.

On the other hand, we can see that in the current milk-poisoning crisis, the Chinese government is spending taxpayers money to compensate the lose of the diary farmers.

This may be a somewhat authoritarian in the eyes of Americans, since every single Chinese citizen (or those who pay tax to the Chinese government at least) is basically paying for something that they have nothing to do with.

However, in this case, by ensuring the survival of the Chinese diary farmers, China has shown to the world that it is acting more responsibly, as well as more maturely, in time of crisis.

Which is very different from the irresponsible manner that the congressmen and congresswomen is showing ahead of the elections.

I was really thrilled to hear that the senate has finally approved the package to save the financial world.

I am not sure how much the collapse of Washington Mutual would have made those senators feel that they finally need to do some work rather than arguing all over the place to maximize their political profit, but the fact that the agreement was reached on Saturday midnight is really an assuring fact to know.

However, what we have seen so far is a really disappointing picture in the Asian market, with the financial stocks continue to decline.

Why is that so?

Because people no longer have any confidence in the US economy.

Sadly speaking, the financial market in US would not stop to deteriorate just  because of the 700 billion. In fact, some analysts claimed that the market needs as much as 5 trillion dollars in order to go through the current mess without getting hurt too much. Unfortunately, the fact that the rest of the world is reluctant in joining the US in saving the financial market means that it is very unlikely the government will be able to raise the fund.

On the other hand, even within the US government, as election approaches, no one seems to have that much interest in asking each US citizen to pay more than 2000 dollars to save the mistakes made by the Wall Street traders. Instead, they have promised tax reduction, which would means that the government would not be able to provide too much to save Wall Street.

However, what should we expect when the market opens tomorrow morning?

First, I think Wachovia is saved for now, after being treated as the next victim after Washington Mutual, therefore, we should see some good news for WB to bring the highly undervalued stock back a little.

Second news should be from the currency market, where we should see some advance in the US dollars as people are now confident that the wound would not be as large. On the other hand, the LIBOR and treasury should be a little lower as the financial institutions (even those non-US companies with large business presence in US) find themselves a little easier to borrow money to solve their liquidity headaches.

Let’s hope that this 700 billion dollars would really be able to give the investors some confidence, because…well, hope is all we have.

几天没日没夜的狂看之后终于看完了宛妃转。

后宫三千粉黛，可是皇上却只有一个，当一个男人的心需要分成了几十份以后，这份心还可以谓之爱情么？

而对于那些妃子来说，一道砖墙阻挡了她们本可以拥有的爱情和完整的人生，也让她们背负了整个家族的希望。对于她们的家人来说，妃子受宠则全家鸡犬皆升，反之亦然。

于是乎，君不见这十几岁的小女子们各个在后宫中斗个你死我活，甚至于牺牲了自己的友情和良心也在所不惜。

可是从另外一个角度来说，我还是很同情顺治帝的，虽然贵为一国之君，他却连选择自己所爱的人都没有。他的皇后不是他喜欢的人，而是因为皇后是太后的孙侄女。他宠信贞妃，而贞妃却不断的出卖和陷害其他的妃子。当他宠信董鄂氏的时候，董鄂氏却连自己的孩子也无法保全。

而朝廷的尔虞我诈却无法让这个少年天子信任任何人，他很没有安全感，很害怕周围任何一个人对他的好，即使在接受任何一个人的感情的时候都是带着怀疑。

于是，他错过了一段又一段属于他的爱情，最后到了去五台山出家的境地。

爱情对于这些人来说都是不幸的，他们总是在错误的时间遇到了一些人，这些人可能是正确的，也可能是错误的，但是那个时间决定了他们的命运，决定了他们他们一生都不可能平凡的度过。

普通人看到的只是他们享受自己所有的权利的时间，却不知道他们为了这些权利付出了多少眼泪和心酸。甚至于把自己的人性进行扭曲也在所不惜。

推荐大家看一下：

http://www.9186.net/files/article/html/0/734/

The past week is definitely one of the most turbulent times (if not the most) in the financial world since September 11, 2001. With Lehman lawyers rushed to file for bankruptcy and Merill Lynch acquired by Bank of America, as well as the possible failure of AIG, people can not stop wondering what is going on.

However, we did see some hope today when Barclays agreed to buy the North America operations of Lehman, which prevent up to 10000 people from losing their jobs and it seems that Feds has provided emergency loan to AIG so that it is unlikely to be in the same fate as Lehman.

Of course, it does not mean Lehman is far from bankruptcy. In fact, we should hear an official end of Lehman pretty soon since the talks with commercial banks have failed. On the other hand, the 85 billion loan from Feds comes with the condition that AIG has to shed up to 80% of its assets in the next couple of years, which essentially kills the entire firm.

The next question that comes naturally is: what will happen?

Now that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the sole survivors of the bloodshed, and Goldman posted a 70% fall in quarterly earnings, it is difficult to imagine those two firms would be able to live long on their own feet. However, the CFO of Goldman has blatantly rejected any thoughts of a merger with the commercial banks, claiming Goldman “can not be funded by deposits”.

What could possibly happen then, is a merger between the investment banks themselves. However, this option is very likely to have regulatory difficulties.

Another alternative is to split themselves to have the “good” banks and the “bad” banks so that the “bad” banks will have sufficient time to wind down the business without causing too much disruption in the market while the “good” banks would continue to be able to sustain a good credit rating and attract the much-needed capital from investors.

On the other hand, in the insurance market, we are very likely going to see a period of adjustment to the entire industry, particularly with the insurance on financial products. New players will involve in the insurance market as insurance companies strive to look for new cash-generating products.

In a short term, of course, it is inevitable that the job markets in finance and related industries will not be that bright. Wall Street alone has lost 40000 jobs this year and they are very likely to fill up the very few new openings in the industry.

We have to see that it is necessary for period of adjustment and the sooner it happens, the better. Subprime mortgage itself was a huge loophole in the first place, just that it was too attractive for the investors to close the hole in the past several years.

In Buddhism, it was said: there is always a time when good deeds will be rewarded and bad deeds would be punished, the only question is when.

I guess now it is the time the boys in Wall Street are punished for what they’ve done.