Dec 10

Here is an interesting snapshot for SDS for the past 12 months of the year:

image

The closing price for SDS is way above the 200-day MA, hence indicating a strong buy signal. 

By adding in the volume factor, more interesting things happened, the interest of SDS is at its peak at the end of November, when it was at all time high of 133.20, which is completely understandable. However, the volume then went down and up and down, which matches the price pattern for SDS since the all time low of the stock market. As SDS is reaching a trading volume that is comparable to its lowest price recently (at the beginning of November), one could not stop wondering, is it going to be another opportunity for SDS to go up again?

The graph is equally interesting for momentum traders, with the momentum graph displayed at the bottom of the 3 graphs. The momentum is clearly indicating an upward trend, hence it should be a good pick for the momentum traders as well.

However, the reality seems to tell us that we are having a bull market, hence SDS, as a “short” stock, is coming down.

The fundamentals in the market is still weak, needless to say, but there seems to be an upbeat mood ever since Obama won the election. Besides the fact that the Christmas-effect is kicking in, we have a market that is eagerly waiting for the outcome of the bailout package for the Big Three automakers, which could come at any time. All these could possibly contribute to the unusual upward trend in the overall market and therefore creating a false picture that the market is recovering.

Just thought this is an interesting example for those who are studying for the Investment course in UW, as the final exam is coming this Friday.

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Nov 09

Ok, so we have the first black president, the first black first lady and the first black family (and the first black barber for the president, according to the news, the black Presidential Barber???)

However, put all the jokes aside, what would it mean for Obama, a Democrat to hold the office with a senate that is clearly working in his favor?

Clearly, the Americans have put in a lot of hope, either from the inspirational speeches given by Obama, or the track record from the Bush administration, in hoping that the change of government will offer them a better economy, and more peaceful lives.

Unfortunately, the young (and somewhat inexperienced) president-to-be has some serious challenges to face:

First of all, the economical crisis that started off by no one else but the greedy investors seeking to maximize their returns in Wall Street. From the oversight of the previous administrations (either purposely or otherwise), the practice of leveraged trading has become a norm among the investment companies. When times are good, of course, leveraged trading will generate a lot more profit than the fully-funded ones, but when things gets bad, the corresponding downside risk is magnified with the borrowing as well.

The next big issue is the war in Iraq. After spending trillions of dollars (hence making the executives in companies like Lockheed Martin and Boeing wealthier than ever), the Bush administration did nothing else but killed Saddam Hussein, someone who attempted to kill his father and someone that was supposedly to have weapons of mass destruction that were never found. Yet, the Americans seems to have made very minor progress every day with huge cost, and the sinking oil price recently has made commercial profit that could be reaped from the war, diminished even more than expected. Therefore, it basically makes both economical sense as well as political sense, for Americans to be out of Iraq.

The question is: how?

No one would like to confess a defeat, especially when the mainstream media are depicting the so-called “winning” in the war (like what they did in Vietnam as well). Therefore, no one could simply say: Let’s get the hell out of here because we are wasting too much of our taxpayers’ cash and we are not making any sense with the war. Instead, finding a “glorious” to withdraw the troops (and hopefully not leaving Iraq in the mess that they are in right now) would be an issue that the new administration have to face.

The next issue is, inevitably, China.

Obama has a half-brother in China, if in case you do not know that, and Democrats are, in general, more open towards international trade. However, there is always a “but”. Obama is also a firm supporter of the protection of the domestic manufacturers, and anything that is “Made in China” would mean losses of American jobs to him. Unfortunately, the fact is that Americans are so dependent on importing primary goods from China, that many people of realized that it is impossible to say no to the goods from China. Therefore, there is another issue that Obama has to decide on balance between the votes from workers in manufacturing industry and the fact that Americans are already fairly dependent on the cheap import from China.

The landslide victory for Obama means that most of the Americans are placing their hope on this man, but the road ahead is very thorny. Although his powerful speeches have inspired millions of people, but the ability to manage the country is something he’ll have to learn down the road, perhaps in a very painful manner.

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Oct 13

Here is the proof that it is not:

This picture is not PSed by any means and is from the original test server from SpeedTest.net

And it seems that UW has the fastest network around!

I did the test again just now to make sure, and here is what I see:

Thanks for those IST guys, you people rock!

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Sep 30

Well, not quite, there is still hope that the senate would bring it back to live some times later this week.

However, the collapse of Wachovia, the bank that could be saved if the loan programs have approved earlier, as well as the plunge of the major index around the world, clearly indicated that this is an issue that can not be waited…

How long will the politicians in Parliament Hill figure out that Americans do need to save Wall Street?

I am not saying the traders in Wall Street have done the right thing to use the money that they are not prepared to pay back, however, what is right and what is wrong no longer matters, because Wall Street is not only a financial hub of the world, it is, more importantly, the dominant factor of the US economy. If Wall Street fails, every ordinary American citizens would be affected, not just the traders or the investment bank executives.

Sometimes, I am wondering if democracy is really a great idea in time of crisis, because it is difficult to explain to every single individual (or even the majority) of the impact of certain things, not because general public are ignorant by any means, but rather we are specialize in different things.

For example, it is difficult to convince a farmer whose sole interest is to be able to sell the cattle he has raised that 2000 dollars from his tax money has to be given to the financial market.

He is probably really good with raising cattle, far better than the investment bankers could do, but that does not mean he could be educated enough to see the entire economy.

On the other hand, we can see that in the current milk-poisoning crisis, the Chinese government is spending taxpayers money to compensate the lose of the diary farmers.

This may be a somewhat authoritarian in the eyes of Americans, since every single Chinese citizen (or those who pay tax to the Chinese government at least) is basically paying for something that they have nothing to do with.

However, in this case, by ensuring the survival of the Chinese diary farmers, China has shown to the world that it is acting more responsibly, as well as more maturely, in time of crisis.

Which is very different from the irresponsible manner that the congressmen and congresswomen is showing ahead of the elections.

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Sep 29

I was really thrilled to hear that the senate has finally approved the package to save the financial world.

I am not sure how much the collapse of Washington Mutual would have made those senators feel that they finally need to do some work rather than arguing all over the place to maximize their political profit, but the fact that the agreement was reached on Saturday midnight is really an assuring fact to know.

However, what we have seen so far is a really disappointing picture in the Asian market, with the financial stocks continue to decline.

Why is that so?

Because people no longer have any confidence in the US economy.

Sadly speaking, the financial market in US would not stop to deteriorate just  because of the 700 billion. In fact, some analysts claimed that the market needs as much as 5 trillion dollars in order to go through the current mess without getting hurt too much. Unfortunately, the fact that the rest of the world is reluctant in joining the US in saving the financial market means that it is very unlikely the government will be able to raise the fund.

On the other hand, even within the US government, as election approaches, no one seems to have that much interest in asking each US citizen to pay more than 2000 dollars to save the mistakes made by the Wall Street traders. Instead, they have promised tax reduction, which would means that the government would not be able to provide too much to save Wall Street.

However, what should we expect when the market opens tomorrow morning?

First, I think Wachovia is saved for now, after being treated as the next victim after Washington Mutual, therefore, we should see some good news for WB to bring the highly undervalued stock back a little.

Second news should be from the currency market, where we should see some advance in the US dollars as people are now confident that the wound would not be as large. On the other hand, the LIBOR and treasury should be a little lower as the financial institutions (even those non-US companies with large business presence in US) find themselves a little easier to borrow money to solve their liquidity headaches.

Let’s hope that this 700 billion dollars would really be able to give the investors some confidence, because…well, hope is all we have.

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Sep 29

几天没日没夜的狂看之后终于看完了宛妃转。

后宫三千粉黛,可是皇上却只有一个,当一个男人的心需要分成了几十份以后,这份心还可以谓之爱情么?

而对于那些妃子来说,一道砖墙阻挡了她们本可以拥有的爱情和完整的人生,也让她们背负了整个家族的希望。对于她们的家人来说,妃子受宠则全家鸡犬皆升,反之亦然。

于是乎,君不见这十几岁的小女子们各个在后宫中斗个你死我活,甚至于牺牲了自己的友情和良心也在所不惜。

可是从另外一个角度来说,我还是很同情顺治帝的,虽然贵为一国之君,他却连选择自己所爱的人都没有。他的皇后不是他喜欢的人,而是因为皇后是太后的孙侄女。他宠信贞妃,而贞妃却不断的出卖和陷害其他的妃子。当他宠信董鄂氏的时候,董鄂氏却连自己的孩子也无法保全。

而朝廷的尔虞我诈却无法让这个少年天子信任任何人,他很没有安全感,很害怕周围任何一个人对他的好,即使在接受任何一个人的感情的时候都是带着怀疑。

于是,他错过了一段又一段属于他的爱情,最后到了去五台山出家的境地。

爱情对于这些人来说都是不幸的,他们总是在错误的时间遇到了一些人,这些人可能是正确的,也可能是错误的,但是那个时间决定了他们的命运,决定了他们他们一生都不可能平凡的度过。

普通人看到的只是他们享受自己所有的权利的时间,却不知道他们为了这些权利付出了多少眼泪和心酸。甚至于把自己的人性进行扭曲也在所不惜。

推荐大家看一下:

http://www.9186.net/files/article/html/0/734/

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Sep 16

The past week is definitely one of the most turbulent times (if not the most) in the financial world since September 11, 2001. With Lehman lawyers rushed to file for bankruptcy and Merill Lynch acquired by Bank of America, as well as the possible failure of AIG, people can not stop wondering what is going on.

However, we did see some hope today when Barclays agreed to buy the North America operations of Lehman, which prevent up to 10000 people from losing their jobs and it seems that Feds has provided emergency loan to AIG so that it is unlikely to be in the same fate as Lehman.

Of course, it does not mean Lehman is far from bankruptcy. In fact, we should hear an official end of Lehman pretty soon since the talks with commercial banks have failed. On the other hand, the 85 billion loan from Feds comes with the condition that AIG has to shed up to 80% of its assets in the next couple of years, which essentially kills the entire firm.

The next question that comes naturally is: what will happen?

Now that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the sole survivors of the bloodshed, and Goldman posted a 70% fall in quarterly earnings, it is difficult to imagine those two firms would be able to live long on their own feet. However, the CFO of Goldman has blatantly rejected any thoughts of a merger with the commercial banks, claiming Goldman “can not be funded by deposits”.

What could possibly happen then, is a merger between the investment banks themselves. However, this option is very likely to have regulatory difficulties.

Another alternative is to split themselves to have the “good” banks and the “bad” banks so that the “bad” banks will have sufficient time to wind down the business without causing too much disruption in the market while the “good” banks would continue to be able to sustain a good credit rating and attract the much-needed capital from investors.

On the other hand, in the insurance market, we are very likely going to see a period of adjustment to the entire industry, particularly with the insurance on financial products. New players will involve in the insurance market as insurance companies strive to look for new cash-generating products.

In a short term, of course, it is inevitable that the job markets in finance and related industries will not be that bright. Wall Street alone has lost 40000 jobs this year and they are very likely to fill up the very few new openings in the industry.

We have to see that it is necessary for period of adjustment and the sooner it happens, the better. Subprime mortgage itself was a huge loophole in the first place, just that it was too attractive for the investors to close the hole in the past several years.

In Buddhism, it was said: there is always a time when good deeds will be rewarded and bad deeds would be punished, the only question is when.

I guess now it is the time the boys in Wall Street are punished for what they’ve done.

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Jun 13

First, it was the Legend of 1900, then it was 27 Dresses…

It may be simply coincidence, or it could be because of the fact that I am only befriended with a particular group of people.

But I guess you can see how shocked I was when two different people recommended me to watch two different movies with two different reasons to watch them, and only after I’ve watched them that I remembered that she asked me to download for her and watch them.

27 Dresses is actually a quite stereotypical story about my-Mr.Right-is-dating-my-sister kind of things.Although there were some twist in the story, such as the “intruder” of the relationship, Kevin Doyle, who actively pursued Jane while she was left out by her Mr. Right, it is overall no more than an ordinary love story for the young girls.

However, there was one sense of the movie that I particularly like, was when Kevin was teaching Jane to say no in a bar.

Saying no is actually quite difficult, especially if you have to say no to someone special (in Jane’s case, it was her sister Tess). Many people choose to keep quiet over things that they are in discomfort with so that they could have a healthy relationship with the others.

However, such relationship are not likely to stay long because the it is already tainted, and as emotional creatures as human have always known as, the dirt in the relationship will explode if it is kept in the dark for too long.

In the movie, when Jane finally exposed what type of person Tess truly was, and therefore caused Tess to break up with Brian, it was understandable that Tess hated Jane for quite a long period. However, Jane did the right thing by preventing both her Mr. Right and her sister to fall into a tragedy in love.

It took her great courage to do so, knowing she may end up losing both Tess and Brian.

Tres bien, Jane, and to everyone reading this: learn to say no if you are not comfortable.

At least, that is what I always tried to do in my life.

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Apr 19

This is the third time in my less-than-a-year experience dealing with Servage.net as my host.

First time it was disk failure, second time was unknown, and this time, according to the customer service representative:

image

And that was more than 2 hours ago….

Ironically, I just saw this on Servage.net:

image

So I guess it is either me who is really unlucky, or this client is simply too lucky :)

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Apr 11

And I have to say, the most powerful entity in this universe is nothing else but women.

Men could be fearless in front of death, men could be fearless in front of being beaten, but one thing that almost every single man is afraid of, is losing the woman in his heart.

This special woman could have many names: mother, lover, wife, daughter, and many more, but once the woman take away his heart, this man is no longer fearless.

I remembered once reading a Chinese novel saying that there used to be this woman who is strikingly beautiful and every single man who ever looked at her would be charmed by her.

She used her beauty to literally make the world she hoped to be, made thing happening exactly the way she wanted to see. Until in the end, when some people started to rebel against her and were trying to kill her.

However, the biggest problem they had, was that no matter what type of assassin they sent to take away her life, the assassin would always charmed by her.

In the end, they sent in a guy (sorry, apparently the author did not think ladies could be good assassins too, which I do not agree) who is neutered, hoping he could complete the task.

And guess what, even before the assassin got close to her, he was in turn, assassinated by other assassins who were charmed by her.

Another story actually pop into my mind was about a successful animal trainer in a circus. He was so successful in taming some of the most fierce beasts that he was visited by several prominent zoologists hoping to find his secret.

The answer was:”If you can not seize their bodies, seize there hearts.”

Somehow, men and beasts are amazingly close.

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